The Second Election:
Yigal
Sarna (Yediot Aharonot) described Sharon – the
Shadow behind the elections - as follows: "There he sleeps, the father
of
the people, the brutal god of war, the strong man of the Middle East,
who built
and dismantled the settlements in Gaza, destroyed the political
movement he
created, triggered the upheaval we are in today - and then
disappeared".
He did not disappear, the election was
based on his policy of unilateralism.
As
Ehud Olmert stated: ‘We are tired of
fighting, we are tired of
being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating
our
enemies.’
Everyone seems to say the election is one
of the most boring they can remember. I do not believe that to be the
case. It
is not boring; people are in despair that no short term solution can be
seen.
Israeli’s are building walls around themselves. There is no light at
the end of
the tunneled wall. As one Kadima strategist stated ‘Most Israelis are
not
looking for peace with the Palestinians. They are looking for quiet,
for
security, and they want the fence to be high enough so that they don't
have to
see them [the Palestinians] any longer (Lior Chorev).
The conflict will simply just go on.
The elections had no competing strategic alternatives; it is only about
tactics.
It is (to quote Yossi Klein Halevy) ‘
It was not boring; Israeli’s do not see
any viable vision of the future that is peaceful. There also were no
charismatic leaders; which may not be all bad. Maybe Israeli’s
preferred
defined policies. Olmert policies were specific;
The electoral conclusion was an almost
equal number of seats for those favoring the unilateral strategy
(Kadima 29)
and those more concerned about the economy (Labor 20 plus the
Pensioners Party
7). The Labor Party also favors a negotiated settlement to the
Palestinian
conflict but if that failed they would approve the convergence plan.
These
three combined to 56 seats will be the base of the new governmental
coalition.
Shas (who are only interested in the money supporting their own people)
or
Yisrael Batenu can easily form a stable coalition. The new government
will
based on two different but not contradictory objectives - unilateralism
and
social democracy.
The right wing consisting of Likud – 12
and National Union/NRP – 9 totaling 21 seats were the big losers. Yisrael Batenu with 11 seats sometimes
considered right wing might accept what Alberto Spektorowski (Tel Aviv
University) called ‘post-territorial nationalism’ meaning land is less
important than Jewishness or Israeliness. (Some are concerned that this
is
rascist.) Their head Avigdor Lieberman has already stated that he was
prepared
to back a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, provided the plan
met
It appears that a majority of Israelis
feel the occupation has become a liability rather than an asset. But no
one not
even Meretz led by Yossi Beilin ran expecting a Peace Agreement.
The first issues the new government
coalition (weeks after Passover) will be the budget which needs to be
passed
within forty five days after the establishment of a new government
(July 1);
the alternative is new elections. Thus the power of Labor and the
Pensioners
(with either Shas or Yisrael Batenu)
will be a immediate as they will return the safety net back to the
poorer
classes. If Amir Peretz takes the Defense Ministry as many commentators
suggest
the money would go from Defense to the lower classes and pensioners.
The convergence plan will require
several steps; completing the security fence, talking to the settlers
west of
the fence – essentially in Palestinian territory, negotiations with
President
Abbas which will fail especially given Hamas in the governmental
background,
negotiating with Washington and the E.U. The first serious steps toward
convergence will not occur until 2007. The convergence plan moving in
total
perhaps 70-80,000 settlers East of the fence will be both traumatic and
politically difficult - given Kadima’s only 22% voting electorate.